Latest Market Alert | 25 April 2026
Executive Summary
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains critically impaired. Reuters reports only five ships passed through the waterway in the last 24 hours, compared with an estimated pre-war average of 140 daily passages. Despite ceasefire language and fresh diplomatic manoeuvring, commercial confidence has not returned.
What Happened
The sharp slowdown follows Iran’s seizure of vessels, continuing U.S. pressure measures and persistent uncertainty over security guarantees for commercial shipping. Reuters also reports U.S. negotiators are heading to Islamabad, while Iran says there will be no direct talks for now.
Why It Matters Commercially
This is a real-world logistics issue, not just a geopolitical headline. If traffic remains constrained, energy flows, freight schedules, marine insurance pricing and inventory planning all remain under pressure.
Likely UK / Client Impact
- Fuel and freight budgets may remain elevated.
- Importers face timing uncertainty and possible landed-cost pressure.
- Treasury teams may need to maintain inflation contingencies.
- Aviation, haulage and manufacturing remain exposed to supply shocks.
Global Commercial Impact
- Oil and LNG buyers remain vulnerable to prolonged disruption.
- Shipping markets may continue to price risk aggressively.
- Global inflation expectations could stay elevated if flows do not recover.
- Supply chains may continue rerouting and carrying higher buffer costs.
Our View
The number that matters today is not a political statement — it is five ships. Until actual traffic normalises, clients should treat Hormuz as an active commercial disruption.
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Invictus Risk Solutions LLP for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, regulatory, investment, insurance, or financial advice. While sources believed to be reliable have been referenced, no representation or warranty is given as to accuracy or completeness. Market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should seek specific professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Invictus Risk Solutions LLP accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.