Latest Market Alert | 24 June 2026
Executive Summary
The IMF has said the global economy is holding up better than feared, with no clear global slowdown yet visible. However, the World Bank has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, warning that growth could fall much further if energy disruption spreads into financial markets.
The OECD has also warned that a prolonged disruption scenario could materially weaken global growth and raise inflation, particularly for energy-importing economies and developing markets.
Sources: IMF; World Bank; OECD; Reuters
Why It Matters
The global economy is not collapsing, but it is less resilient than in previous cycles. Growth, inflation, energy costs and financial conditions remain closely linked.
UK Commercial Impact
UK firms should prepare for uneven demand, continued borrowing-cost sensitivity and cautious customer behaviour across export and investment markets.
Global Commercial Impact
Businesses operating internationally may face regional divergence, with India and parts of Asia remaining relatively resilient while Europe, the Middle East and more vulnerable emerging markets face greater pressure.
Our View
This is a resilience economy, not a recovery economy. Clients should assume slower growth, selective opportunities and higher sensitivity to geopolitical or financing shocks.
Risk Indicator
LOW ░░░░░░░░ HIGH
▲ Moderate / Elevated
Disclaimer
This Market Alert is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, regulatory, insurance or financial advice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time of publication; however, no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Readers should obtain independent professional advice before making any commercial or financial decisions. Invictus Risk Solutions LLP accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this publication.