15 August 2026
Executive Summary
The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly important concentration of commodity, infrastructure and geopolitical risk.
Drone attacks this week disrupted major export infrastructure at Russia’s Novorossiysk port.
A grain terminal suspended operations after sustaining damage on 12 August, while an attack two days later forced crude loadings to stop at the Sheskharis terminal, Russia’s principal Black Sea oil export facility. Sheskharis normally handles approximately 700,000 barrels of crude per day.
Turkey is already responding by reducing purchases from Russian Black Sea ports and seeking alternative oil supplies, including unusual imports from Brazil and Guyana.
This demonstrates a wider risk:
Companies can diversify their suppliers while remaining dependent upon the same export corridor.
UK Impact
UK businesses may not import Russian commodities directly and can still be affected.
Disruption to significant grain and energy export infrastructure can influence:
- International commodity prices.
- Marine freight costs.
- War-risk insurance.
- Fuel prices.
- Agricultural input costs.
- Food manufacturing costs.
- Fertiliser availability.
- Shipping capacity.
Businesses sourcing from Kazakhstan are also relevant because Kazakhstan’s crude reaches international markets through infrastructure crossing Russia to the Black Sea.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route accounts for around 2% of global oil supply and has experienced repeated disruption from attacks around its Black Sea export facilities.
Global Impact
Novorossiysk is significant because it handles several strategically important commodity flows.
The port exports Russian crude, Kazakhstan’s KEBCO blend and substantial volumes of grain.
Russia is also the world’s largest wheat exporter, meaning disruption to grain infrastructure can have consequences considerably beyond the immediate conflict zone. Wheat futures rose following this week’s attacks on Novorossiysk export facilities.
Meanwhile Turkey’s response demonstrates how quickly disruption at one export hub can reshape global sourcing.
Its imports from Russian ports fell from around 1.2 million tonnes in June to approximately 900,000 tonnes in July, while Black Sea supplies fell particularly sharply.
Our View
Businesses should examine infrastructure concentration beneath supplier diversification.
Companies should ask:
- Do several suppliers use the same export port?
- Do apparently different origins depend upon the same pipeline?
- Which commodities cannot easily be rerouted?
- Are alternative ports genuinely available?
- What additional freight costs would rerouting create?
- Are war-risk premiums changing?
- Could vessels decline voyages into the region?
- Do contracts specify alternative loading locations?
- Does force majeure wording adequately address port disruption?
- How quickly could alternative commodity origins be approved?
The central lesson is that having three suppliers does not necessarily mean having three supply chains.
If all three rely upon the same terminal, pipeline or shipping corridor, the business may still have one underlying point of failure.
Risk Indicator: HIGH
Disclaimer
The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.