Hormuz Traffic Falls to Four Vessel Transits

15 September 2026

Executive Summary

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply again, providing fresh evidence that the waterway is becoming increasingly difficult to use even without a formal closure.

Preliminary Kpler data recorded just four commodity-vessel transits through Hormuz on Monday, down from ten on Sunday.

The four observed movements comprised:

• Two dry-bulk vessels exiting the Strait.
• Two oil tankers entering in ballast.

The figures do not include vessels travelling with Automatic Identification System transponders switched off, meaning some unobserved crossings may have occurred.

Nevertheless, the decline is substantial.

Before the current conflict, approximately 125 large commercial vessels typically passed through Hormuz each day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container ships.

Iranian media also reported that an oil tanker exploded and caught fire after striking mines in the Strait.

The precise timing and circumstances of that incident have not been independently established.

At the same time, Gulf Arab states have postponed planned talks with Iran concerning possible arrangements for Hormuz, delaying hopes of a negotiated improvement in shipping conditions.

The commercial problem is increasingly not whether Hormuz is technically open, but whether sufficient shipowners, insurers and crews are willing to use it.

UK Impact

UK businesses may experience continuing pressure through:

• Oil prices.
• LNG prices.
• Diesel.
• Aviation fuel.
• Marine insurance.
• War-risk premiums.
• Container freight.
• Petrochemical inputs.
• Supplier surcharges.
• Longer inventory cycles.

Brent crude was trading at approximately $107 per barrel early Tuesday, reflecting continued concern over Middle Eastern supply.

Businesses with fixed customer pricing may therefore face increasing margin pressure if transport and energy costs continue rising.

Global Impact

Hormuz normally carries around one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supply.

The latest traffic data must also be viewed alongside other regional developments.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remains disrupted following attacks.

Houthi forces have consolidated positions along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control strategic Perim Island inside Bab el-Mandeb.

The Houthis also launched another wave of missiles and drones against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

Observed traffic through Bab el-Mandeb also declined, from 28 commodity vessels on Sunday to 21 on Monday.

This creates an unusual combination of pressure across:

• Hormuz.
• Saudi pipeline infrastructure.
• Bab el-Mandeb.
• Red Sea shipping.

The alternative routes are therefore not entirely independent of the original risk.

Our View

Businesses should stop treating the Middle East disruption as a short-term shipping delay and begin testing resilience against prolonged impairment.

Companies should ask:

• Which products ultimately depend upon Gulf shipping?
• Are suppliers disclosing their transport routes?
• Has the carrier reconfirmed future sailings?
• Are insurers still approving voyages?
• Have war-risk premiums changed?
• Who bears those additional premiums?
• Can emergency freight surcharges be imposed?
• Are alternative suppliers already qualified?
• Are those suppliers genuinely outside the affected supply chain?
• Is additional inventory justified?
• How much working capital would additional inventory require?
• Could critical goods move by air?
• Are fuel costs hedged?
• When do existing hedges expire?
• Could higher transport costs threaten supplier solvency?
• Do contracts adequately address prolonged route disruption?

There is an important distinction between a waterway being legally open and being commercially usable at normal capacity.

Current traffic data suggest businesses should plan around the latter.

Risk Indicator: SEVERE – HORMUZ, ENERGY & GLOBAL SHIPPING

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.