20 September 2026
Executive Summary
Senior US and Chinese officials begin talks in New York today covering critical minerals, tariffs, artificial intelligence and trade, ahead of this week’s meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are due to participate.
One of the principal issues is the supply of Chinese critical minerals and rare-earth magnets.
China previously agreed to restore flows to US and international users as part of the existing trade truce.
But a senior US official said on Friday that China’s performance had “not been up to par”.
The current US-China trade truce is due to expire on 10 November.
The discussions are also expected to cover:
- Artificial intelligence.
- Tariff reductions on some non-strategic goods.
- Chinese purchases of US agricultural products.
- Aircraft purchases.
- Investment rules.
No agreement has yet been reached.
For businesses, the immediate risk is therefore uncertainty over whether today’s temporary trade arrangements become more stable or begin to unravel as the November deadline approaches.
UK Impact
UK companies may be exposed even though the negotiations are between Washington and Beijing.
Critical minerals and rare-earth magnets are used in:
- Electric motors.
- Automotive components.
- Electronics.
- Wind turbines.
- Robotics.
- Aerospace.
- Defence.
- Industrial machinery.
- Semiconductor manufacturing.
Restrictions affecting US supply can redirect available material elsewhere and alter global prices.
Likewise, any improvement in Chinese exports could relieve pressure internationally.
Global Impact
China retains substantial control over the processing and supply of several strategically important minerals.
That concentration means bilateral US-China trade arrangements can have global consequences.
The negotiations also highlight the interaction between separate risks.
Rare earths are important to semiconductor and AI infrastructure.
Semiconductors influence industrial production.
Tariffs alter where products are manufactured.
Investment restrictions influence where future capacity is built.
Businesses should therefore avoid assessing each policy in isolation.
Our View
Companies should use the negotiations as a prompt to map critical-material exposure.
Businesses should ask:
- Which products contain rare-earth magnets?
- Which critical minerals do suppliers require?
- Where are those materials processed?
- Is supply ultimately dependent upon China?
- Are export licences required?
- Are existing licences temporary?
- Could tariff arrangements change after 10 November?
- How much inventory exists?
- Are alternative suppliers qualified?
- Could recycled material substitute?
- Would substitution require redesign?
- Are long-term supply agreements available?
- Could US demand absorb alternative global supply?
- Are suppliers monitoring the negotiations?
- Do contracts allocate tariff-related costs?
- Could sudden policy changes affect goods already in transit?
The key date is not simply this week’s presidential summit.
Businesses should also watch 10 November, when the existing trade truce is scheduled to expire.
Trade-policy risk often changes faster than physical supply chains can adapt.
Risk Indicator: HIGH – US-CHINA TRADE, CRITICAL MINERALS & SUPPLY CHAINS
Does This Risk Affect Your Business?
Invictus Risk Solutions helps businesses find practical solutions to insurance, risk and commercial challenges.
From individual businesses to major international organisations, risk is our business.
TALK TO INVICTUS →Disclaimer
The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.