Saudi Oil Exports Recover Despite Pipeline Disruption

22 September 2026

Executive Summary

Saudi Arabia has sharply increased crude exports from its Gulf terminals, demonstrating an important recovery in oil flows despite continuing disruption to its East-West pipeline and Red Sea export route.

Saudi Aramco loaded approximately 14 million barrels of crude onto seven Very Large Crude Carriers on Sunday at Ras Tanura in the Middle East Gulf.

Satellite imagery and tanker-tracking data indicate that Saudi Gulf crude loadings have averaged approximately 3.7 million barrels per day since 12 September, compared with around 2.9 million barrels per day earlier in the month.

Separate estimates indicate Saudi oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz recently reached its highest level in approximately six months.

The increase follows disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which forced the suspension of crude loadings through Yanbu on the Red Sea and resulted in the cancellation of some European cargoes.

Saudi Arabia has responded by redirecting more crude through its eastern terminals and developing ship-to-ship transfer arrangements outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Approximately 60 million barrels have reportedly been sold for loading from Ras Tanura before transfer between vessels near Sohar, Oman, during September and October.

The development demonstrates that Saudi Arabia has found a workable alternative to part of its disrupted export system — but the solution creates a different concentration of risk.

UK Impact

For UK businesses, the immediate development is positive.

Improved Saudi export volumes reduce the risk of a severe global crude shortage and may help moderate:

• Fuel prices.
• Transport costs.
• Aviation costs.
• Industrial energy costs.
• Inflation.
• Logistics surcharges.

But businesses should not interpret improving exports as a return to normal conditions.

The replacement system depends heavily upon:

• Gulf export terminals.
• Strait of Hormuz transit.
• Tanker availability.
• Ship-to-ship transfers.
• Military protection.
• Marine insurance.

A supply chain that previously had alternative eastern and western export routes has temporarily become more dependent upon one maritime corridor.

Global Impact

The Saudi response demonstrates considerable operational adaptability.

Crude that would previously have travelled west through the East-West pipeline towards Yanbu is increasingly being loaded from Gulf terminals.

Some cargoes are then transferred between vessels outside Hormuz near Oman.

This allows specialised shuttle tankers to make repeated shorter journeys through the Strait rather than requiring every vessel to complete a full international voyage.

The system is helping maintain global oil supply.

But it is expensive.

Ship-to-ship transfers require:

• Additional vessels.
• Additional handling.
• Additional insurance.
• Additional coordination.
• Suitable anchorages.
• Maritime security.

Tanker freight costs on some Middle East routes have risen dramatically during the conflict.

The workaround therefore improves availability without necessarily restoring efficiency or cost.

Our View

This is precisely the type of improvement businesses should incorporate into risk monitoring.

Companies should ask:

• Have Saudi export volumes genuinely recovered?
• Which routes are now being used?
• How dependent are exports upon Hormuz?
• How much crude is moving through ship-to-ship transfers?
• Is sufficient tanker capacity available?
• What are current tanker freight costs?
• Have war-risk premiums changed?
• Are vessels operating with AIS disabled?
• How reliable are publicly visible shipping figures?
• Is the East-West pipeline being restored?
• When might Yanbu loadings resume?
• Are European buyers receiving replacement cargoes?
• Could another Hormuz incident disrupt the workaround?
• Are oil-price assumptions being updated?
• Could lower crude prices disguise higher freight costs?
• Are fuel suppliers passing transport costs through?

There is an important resilience lesson.

A workaround can restore supply without restoring resilience.

Saudi Arabia has demonstrated an impressive ability to keep additional oil moving.

But replacing a disrupted pipeline and Red Sea export route with increased dependence upon Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers means that the risk has partly moved rather than disappeared.

Businesses should therefore recognise the improvement while continuing to stress-test another interruption to Gulf shipping.

Risk Indicator: ELEVATED – SAUDI ARABIA, OIL EXPORTS & MARITIME LOGISTICS

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.