Hormuz Tanker Attacks Deepen Shipping Disruption

23 September 2026

Executive Summary

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated again following separate attacks on an oil tanker and an LPG carrier, while observed commodity-vessel traffic fell sharply.

Preliminary Kpler data showed only two commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Monday, compared with 10 on Sunday.

The observed vessels were a Panama-flagged Supramax carrying minerals and a Liberia-flagged bulk carrier.

The figures do not include vessels that may have crossed with Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.

Separately, maritime intelligence firm Marisks reported two recent attacks.

The Isle of Man-flagged crude tanker LR Stephanie was struck by an unidentified projectile while entering the waterway on Monday, resulting in minor injuries to two crew members.

The Liberia-flagged LPG tanker Al Maryah was struck while exiting Hormuz on Sunday.

Both vessels were able to continue without towing assistance.

Responsibility for the incidents has not been established.

Neither vessel had been identified on publicly reported Iranian lists of vessels considered non-compliant.

The material change is that severely restricted traffic is now being accompanied by further physical attacks on vessels actually attempting transit.

UK Impact

UK businesses can experience the consequences without purchasing Gulf oil directly.

Potential effects include:

• Marine insurance.
• Tanker availability.
• Container freight.
• Fuel costs.
• Petrochemicals.
• LPG.
• LNG.
• Industrial feedstocks.
• Delivery schedules.

Businesses importing goods from Asia may also face indirect effects if vessel availability and global shipping schedules become increasingly distorted.

Global Impact

Before the current conflict, approximately 125 large commercial vessels per day typically crossed Hormuz across tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container vessels.

Observed current commodity traffic remains dramatically below those historical levels.

The commercial calculation for shipowners increasingly involves more than whether passage is legally permitted.

Owners must consider:

• Crew safety.
• Vessel value.
• Cargo value.
• Insurance.
• Charterparty obligations.
• War-risk premiums.
• Voyage profitability.
• Availability of naval protection.

Meanwhile, Bab el-Mandeb traffic remained considerably more stable on Monday, with 26 observed crossings.

That distinction matters.

Different Middle Eastern routes are experiencing different levels and types of disruption.

Our View

Businesses should continue separating open, observable and commercially usable when discussing Hormuz.

Companies should ask:

• Is the nominated vessel actually willing to transit?
• Has the owner reconfirmed?
• Has the crew consented where required?
• Is war-risk cover available?
• Has the premium changed?
• Who pays the additional premium?
• Is the vessel using AIS?
• How reliable are publicly visible traffic figures?
• Could cargo be transferred outside the Strait?
• Are ship-to-ship arrangements available?
• Could alternative ports be used?
• Is sufficient replacement vessel capacity available?
• What happens if the nominated vessel withdraws?
• Are delivery dates contractually flexible?
• Could force-majeure provisions apply?
• Is cargo accumulation developing outside the Strait?

There is also a crucial lesson from Saudi Arabia’s improving export position.

Improving oil availability does not necessarily mean improving shipping safety.

Saudi infrastructure redundancy may be recovering while the physical risk to individual vessels attempting Hormuz transit remains exceptionally high.

Those two developments can exist simultaneously.

Risk Indicator: SEVERE – HORMUZ, TANKER ATTACKS & MARITIME LOGISTICS

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.