23 September 2026
Executive Summary
Record international tanker costs are beginning to change the commercial economics of oil trading far beyond the Middle East, demonstrating how disruption around major shipping routes is propagating through global freight markets.
Traders including Vitol and Trafigura are seeking substantially larger discounts for Venezuelan crude because higher tanker costs are eroding the economics of moving the oil to customers.
Chartering an Aframax tanker carrying approximately 700,000 barrels from Venezuela’s José terminal to the US Gulf Coast now costs around $3.5 million.
At the beginning of 2026, the comparable voyage cost approximately $1.35 million.
Expressed per barrel, freight has increased from approximately $1.90 to $5.
Trading companies are consequently seeking Venezuelan crude at approximately $18-$20 per barrel below Brent for cargoes heading towards the United States or Europe.
The significance is that Middle Eastern shipping disruption is no longer merely increasing the cost of Middle Eastern oil — it is repricing tanker capacity globally.
UK Impact
The development has implications for UK and European businesses because commodity prices alone do not determine delivered energy costs.
The final cost also includes:
- Freight.
- Insurance.
- Vessel availability.
- Port costs.
- Financing.
- Storage.
Businesses may therefore see international oil benchmarks decline without receiving an equivalent reduction in delivered fuel costs.
The same principle can affect other internationally transported commodities.
Global Impact
Venezuelan oil exports remained around 1.17 million barrels per day in August.
But tanker queues and average waiting times at Venezuelan terminals have remained at their highest levels since January.
That creates a second logistics problem.
Higher tanker rates make ships more expensive.
Port delays then keep those expensive vessels occupied for longer.
The combination can create a feedback loop:
fewer available vessels → higher charter rates → higher delivered commodity costs → greater pressure to reduce loading and waiting times.
The effects are increasingly visible far from the original areas of conflict.
Our View
Businesses should begin separating the commodity price from the delivered commodity cost.
Companies should ask:
- What proportion of delivered cost is freight?
- Are freight rates fixed?
- When are shipping contracts renewed?
- Are vessels contracted voyage-by-voyage?
- Could longer waiting times create demurrage?
- Who pays demurrage?
- Are tanker rates affecting supplier margins?
- Could suppliers demand contractual price changes?
- Are freight surcharges transparent?
- Is marine insurance included?
- Are alternative loading ports available?
- Could smaller vessels be used?
- Are long-term freight contracts available?
- Could declining commodity prices conceal rising logistics costs?
- Are procurement teams monitoring freight separately from benchmark prices?
- Could shipping costs make alternative suppliers uneconomic?
This is becoming one of the most important consequences of the current maritime disruption.
A commodity can be physically available and its benchmark price can even fall — while the cost of getting it to the customer continues to rise.
Businesses should therefore monitor freight as an independent input cost rather than treating it simply as a small component of commodity pricing.
Risk Indicator: HIGH – GLOBAL SHIPPING, TANKER COSTS & ENERGY LOGISTICS
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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