26 September 2026
Executive Summary
Persistent rain across parts of the US Midwest has delayed the soybean harvest sufficiently to leave some processors struggling to obtain supplies and scaling back production.
Soybean processors across western, central and eastern areas of the Midwest are offering substantial premiums for immediate deliveries.
Supplies from last year’s harvest are running down while wet fields have prevented some farmers from harvesting the new crop.
Some processing plants have already reduced operations because they cannot secure sufficient soybeans.
The disruption affects production of:
- Soybean meal.
- Soybean oil.
- Livestock feed.
- Food ingredients.
- Biofuel feedstocks.
October soybean-meal futures consequently rose to a contract high.
The risk is not currently a lack of soybeans in the ground — it is a timing mismatch between depleted old-crop inventories and farmers’ ability to physically harvest the new crop.
UK Impact
The US is a major agricultural producer and exporter.
UK and European businesses could experience indirect consequences through international markets for:
- Animal feed.
- Vegetable oils.
- Food manufacturing.
- Biofuels.
- Agricultural commodities.
Higher US soybean-meal prices can also affect livestock production costs internationally.
Businesses sourcing from alternative origins may still experience higher prices if international buyers compete for replacement supply.
Global Impact
US soybean-processing capacity has expanded significantly in recent years, partly because of increased demand for biofuels.
The US Department of Agriculture projects processors will crush a record 2.78 billion bushels during the current crop year.
That makes reliable harvest timing increasingly important.
Some processing plants are reportedly unable to secure sufficient immediate supplies.
Cargill facilities in Iowa were among plants that did not post offers for soybean meal because of supply constraints reported by grain merchants.
Other processors have increased prices offered to farmers able to deliver immediately.
The underlying crop may ultimately be available.
But processors require physical supply now.
Our View
Businesses should distinguish between crop production risk and crop timing risk.
Companies should ask:
- How much old-crop inventory remains?
- When will the new crop become available?
- How many processing plants have reduced output?
- Are soybean-meal inventories sufficient?
- Are livestock-feed contracts fixed?
- Could alternative protein meals be substituted?
- Is soybean oil supply affected?
- Could biofuel demand compete with food demand?
- Are alternative origins available?
- What are Brazilian supplies?
- What are Argentine supplies?
- Could rail movements redistribute available soybeans?
- Are processing margins changing?
- Could further rainfall extend the disruption?
- How much buffer inventory is held?
- Are procurement assumptions based upon harvest forecasts rather than actual deliveries?
This demonstrates why headline production forecasts do not always describe immediate supply-chain conditions.
A large crop can exist while processors simultaneously struggle to obtain raw material.
Inventory bridges the gap between production cycles — and when that buffer becomes too small, even a short harvest delay can become an industrial supply problem.
Risk Indicator: ELEVATED – UNITED STATES, AGRICULTURE & FOOD SUPPLY
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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