28 September 2026
Executive Summary
Crude exports from the Middle East’s major producing countries have recovered to their highest level since the US-Iran conflict began in February, providing an important positive signal for global energy supply.
Preliminary Kpler data indicates crude exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran are expected to average approximately 12.8 million barrels per day during September.
That represents a significant recovery as producers adapt export routes and more oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Exports through Hormuz are expected to reach approximately 7.4 million barrels per day this month.
However, regional exports remain approximately 6 million barrels per day below February’s 18.8 million barrels per day.
The risk environment is therefore improving — but it has not normalised.
UK Impact
Improving Middle Eastern oil flows can reduce some pressure on:
- Crude prices.
- Diesel.
- Aviation fuel.
- Petrochemicals.
- Refinery feedstocks.
- European energy costs.
More available crude can also reduce competition for replacement barrels from other producing regions.
However, shipping and insurance costs remain elevated and businesses should not assume lower supply risk automatically translates into proportionately lower delivered energy costs.
Global Impact
Saudi Arabia has played a major role in the recovery.
Following attacks that disrupted its East-West pipeline and Red Sea export route, Saudi Arabia increased exports through the Gulf.
The UAE has also increased shipments.
The result demonstrates the ability of producers and shipping companies to adapt after severe disruption.
However, the recovery depends upon logistics including:
- Hormuz transits.
- Tanker availability.
- Ship-to-ship transfers.
- Alternative loading arrangements.
- Marine insurance.
Those systems remain exposed to regional conflict.
Our View
This is an important positive risk-direction update.
Businesses should acknowledge improving supply conditions while avoiding the assumption that the underlying risk has disappeared.
Companies should ask:
- Are contracted cargoes now moving normally?
- Are delivery times improving?
- Are freight rates falling?
- Are war-risk premiums falling?
- Are STS queues reducing?
- Are refinery inventories rebuilding?
- Are diesel inventories recovering?
- Are jet-fuel stocks rebuilding?
- Are suppliers removing emergency surcharges?
- Are alternative routes still being used?
- What happens if Hormuz traffic deteriorates again?
- Have emergency sourcing arrangements been retained?
- Are companies locking in improved availability?
- Is physical fuel pricing falling as quickly as crude futures?
The important distinction is between recovery and resilience.
Exports can recover because extraordinary workarounds are functioning.
That does not necessarily mean the system has regained its pre-conflict resilience.
Improving supply should be used to rebuild buffers — not to dismantle contingency plans.
Risk Indicator: ELEVATED – MIDDLE EAST, OIL SUPPLY & ENERGY LOGISTICS
Does This Risk Affect Your Business?
Invictus Risk Solutions helps businesses find practical solutions to insurance, risk and commercial challenges.
From individual businesses to major international organisations, risk is our business.
TALK TO INVICTUS →Disclaimer
The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.