Qatar LNG Force Majeure Deepens Winter Supply Risk

29 September 2026

Executive Summary

Qatar Energy has extended force majeure affecting liquefied natural gas deliveries to customers in Europe and Asia, demonstrating that improving tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have not yet restored normal contractual supply.

Italy’s Edison has been informed that Qatari LNG deliveries will not resume before the beginning of December.

Edison receives approximately 10% of Italy’s natural gas requirements under a long-term agreement with QatarEnergy.

A total of approximately 35 contracted cargoes will have been missed, including 23 already replaced largely through supplies from the United States.

Force majeure notices have also been extended affecting customers in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The development comes despite a recent increase in visible Qatar-linked LNG tanker movements through Hormuz.

The critical distinction is that shipping activity can improve without contractual supply returning to normal.

UK Impact

The UK is a major LNG importer and participates in the same global market competing for replacement cargoes.

Reduced Qatari availability can therefore affect:

• LNG pricing.
• European gas prices.
• Electricity costs.
• Industrial energy costs.
• Winter storage.
• Replacement cargo availability.

If European and Asian buyers simultaneously seek replacement LNG, competition for flexible cargoes can increase.

Global Impact

Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters.

Its principal export terminal at Ras Laffan lies inside the Gulf, making Hormuz essential to most seaborne exports.

Recent ship-tracking data indicates that several Qatar-linked LNG vessels have again crossed the Strait.

However, Qatar’s export disruption since the conflict began has been severe.

The emerging situation therefore contains two apparently contradictory developments:

More LNG vessels are moving through Hormuz.

But:

Some major customers are still not receiving their contracted LNG.

Both can be true simultaneously.

Our View

Businesses should distinguish between shipping recovery, supply recovery and contractual recovery.

They are not the same thing.

Energy-intensive businesses should ask:

• How much gas is contracted?
• Where does that gas originate?
• Does the supplier rely upon Qatari LNG?
• Has force majeure been declared?
• How long does force majeure apply?
• Who provides replacement supply?
• At what price?
• Is replacement LNG physically available?
• Are storage levels sufficient?
• Is winter demand hedged?
• Could Asian buyers outbid European buyers?
• Are alternative fuels available?
• Could electricity prices rise with gas prices?
• Are energy-price escalation clauses contained in customer contracts?
• Are suppliers passing through additional costs?

Companies should also review whether their contracts protect against a prolonged interruption rather than merely a short delay.

The approaching northern-hemisphere winter increases the importance of rebuilding inventories while replacement cargoes remain available.

A tanker passing through Hormuz does not necessarily mean the customer’s contracted gas is on board.

Risk Indicator: HIGH – GLOBAL, LNG SUPPLY & WINTER ENERGY RISK

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.