14 August 2026
Executive Summary
The United States has fully resumed agricultural inspection activities in Mexico’s Michoacán state after security concerns temporarily disrupted the inspections required for avocado exports to the US.
US authorities had suspended activities earlier this month after security concerns affecting inspectors. Mexico subsequently increased security measures, including the deployment of more than 1,500 military and National Guard personnel. US officials say they will continue monitoring conditions.
This may initially appear to be a niche agricultural story.
It is actually an excellent example of a much wider commercial vulnerability:
A supply chain can stop because the person required to certify the goods cannot safely reach the site.
UK Impact
UK businesses operating international supply chains frequently depend upon external people or organisations whose presence is required before goods can move.
Examples include:
- Government inspectors.
- Veterinary officers.
- Classification societies.
- Surveyors.
- Customs officials.
- Certification bodies.
- Laboratory technicians.
- Engineers.
- Loss adjusters.
If security conditions prevent those people from travelling, goods may remain commercially unusable despite being physically available.
This is particularly relevant for food, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, chemicals, machinery and specialist industrial equipment.
Global Impact
Mexico is the dominant supplier of avocados to the United States. USDA estimates that almost 90% of Mexico’s avocado exports by volume go to the US, with US imports from Mexico reaching approximately 1.08 million tonnes in 2025.
The certification system is therefore commercially critical.
The incident is not unprecedented. US avocado inspections in Michoacán were also temporarily suspended following security incidents in 2022 and 2024.
This demonstrates that supplier-country risk may involve more than:
- Factory damage.
- Political sanctions.
- Transport disruption.
It may instead arise through the inability of a relatively small number of authorised individuals to perform a mandatory regulatory function.
Our View
Businesses should identify human certification chokepoints within critical supply chains.
Companies should ask:
- Which approvals are required before goods can move?
- Who physically performs those inspections?
- Are alternative inspectors available?
- Can certification be performed at another location?
- How long does approval normally take?
- What happens if officials cannot safely visit the facility?
- Can goods be redirected to another market?
- Who bears storage and deterioration costs during suspension?
- Does cargo insurance respond while goods await certification?
- Are alternative origins already approved?
The key lesson is that supply-chain resilience is not only about inventory and transport.
Sometimes the critical dependency is one signature, one inspection or one authorised person.
If that person cannot reach the goods, the entire chain can stop.
Risk Indicator: ELEVATED
Disclaimer
The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.