Brent Oil Rise Keeps Business Costs Under Pressure

29 September 2026

Executive Summary

Global oil prices are rising again despite a significant recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports, demonstrating that increased supply does not necessarily mean the energy market has returned to normal.

Brent crude rose approximately 1.5% to around $107 per barrel this morning, while US West Texas Intermediate crude approached $94.

The increase comes despite preliminary data showing crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached approximately 12.8 million barrels per day during September — their highest level since the US-Iran conflict began in February.

The apparent contradiction reflects the continuing cost and complexity of moving oil from the region.

Much of the additional supply still depends upon expensive logistical workarounds, including ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Those operations require additional tankers, time, crews, tugboats and transfer capacity.

The oil may be moving again — but it is not moving normally.

UK Impact

Persistently high crude prices can feed through into UK business costs through:

• Diesel.
• Petrol.
• Aviation fuel.
• Shipping.
• Road freight.
• Manufacturing.
• Petrochemicals.
• Plastics.
• Agriculture.
• Construction.
• Electricity and broader inflation.

Higher energy prices can also affect borrowing costs if they increase inflation expectations.

Businesses should therefore avoid viewing oil solely as a transport cost.

It can influence the wider cost of capital and operating environment.

Global Impact

Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered substantially during September.

However, normal logistics have not.

Gulf producers have increasingly relied upon arrangements including:

• Ship-to-ship transfers.
• Additional tanker movements.
• Alternative loading arrangements.
• Gulf of Oman transfer operations.
• Longer voyage times.

Ship-to-ship operations near Oman have already experienced congestion as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and other producers increasingly use the same infrastructure.

Some transfers that previously required approximately five to seven days have recently taken nearly 10 days.

The result is an important divergence:

Physical oil availability is improving.

But:

The cost of delivering that oil remains elevated.

Our View

Businesses should distinguish between commodity price, commodity availability and delivered cost.

They are three different risks.

Companies should ask:

• What oil price assumptions are contained in budgets?
• How exposed are operations to diesel?
• How exposed are suppliers to fuel costs?
• Are freight surcharges increasing?
• Are shipping contracts passing through fuel costs?
• Are airlines applying additional fuel surcharges?
• Are suppliers seeking price increases?
• Are customer contracts indexed to energy prices?
• Can fuel costs be hedged?
• How long are current prices sustainable?
• Are inventories sufficient?
• Are replacement suppliers geographically diversified?
• Are logistics costs falling as physical supply improves?
• Are war-risk premiums declining?
• Are tanker rates declining?
• Could higher energy costs affect interest rates or borrowing costs?

Companies should also be cautious about assuming that recovering Middle Eastern exports will immediately push prices substantially lower.

The system moving those exports remains inefficient and expensive.

A barrel produced for the same cost but requiring additional tankers, transfers, insurance and transit time is not economically equivalent to a barrel moving through the normal supply chain.

This is another example of the distinction businesses increasingly need to understand:

Commodity price is not the same thing as delivered cost — and production is not the same thing as supply.

Risk Indicator: HIGH – GLOBAL, OIL PRICES, ENERGY COSTS & INFLATION

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.