Latest Market Alert | 28 April 2026
Executive Summary
Global energy and commodity markets face a further stress test as forecasters warn that El Niño conditions could return as early as May and strengthen through 2026. Reuters reports that the weather pattern could bring heatwaves, rainfall disruption and shifting power demand across Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and Latin America.
Why It Matters
El Niño can disrupt agriculture, hydropower, electricity demand, coal usage, LNG flows and food production. Coming on top of existing geopolitical pressure in energy markets, the risk is that weather disruption adds a second layer of volatility to already strained supply chains.
UK Commercial Impact
UK businesses may see indirect pressure through higher food import costs, energy volatility, insurance exposure and commodity-linked inflation. Retailers, food manufacturers, logistics firms and energy-intensive sectors should monitor weather-sensitive supply lines, particularly where sourcing depends on Asia, Africa or Latin America.
Global Commercial Impact
Asia may face hotter and drier conditions, increasing cooling demand and potentially raising coal use in China and India. Lower rainfall in parts of Africa and Latin America could affect hydropower output, while crop risks may add pressure to food and soft commodity prices.
Disclaimer
This Market Alert is provided for general commercial risk awareness only. It does not constitute legal, financial, investment or insurance advice. Clients should take specialist advice before making contractual, operational or investment decisions.