9 September 2026
Executive Summary
European projects intended to reduce dependence upon imported critical minerals are warning that financing and liquidity constraints could prevent some projects reaching production, creating a significant strategic supply-chain risk.
The European Union has designated 60 strategic critical-mineral projects, including 47 inside Europe and 13 elsewhere.
The projects are intended to increase secure access to materials essential for:
- Defence.
- Aerospace.
- Batteries.
- Electronics.
- Renewable energy.
- Semiconductor manufacturing.
- Advanced industrial production.
However, 23 of the selected projects have issued an urgent appeal warning that financing delays, weak market conditions and liquidity pressures could place some developments in immediate jeopardy.
The European Commission says it has established a framework capable of mobilising approximately €1.7 billion in financing for strategic projects and recognises the difficult market environment.
That distinction is important.
This does not mean Europe’s critical-mineral strategy has failed.
It means the transition from policy designation to commercially functioning production remains a significant execution risk.
UK Impact
The UK is outside the European Union but remains deeply interconnected with European manufacturing.
British industries potentially exposed include:
- Automotive.
- Aerospace.
- Defence.
- Electronics.
- Renewable energy.
- Battery manufacturing.
- Advanced engineering.
- Medical technology.
Many of these industries depend upon minerals whose mining or processing remains geographically concentrated.
A European supplier does not automatically mean a European raw-material source.
A component may be manufactured in Germany, France or the Netherlands while still depending upon minerals processed in China.
That creates hidden upstream concentration.
Global Impact
Governments increasingly recognise critical minerals as strategic assets.
But building alternative supply takes years.
Mining projects require:
- Planning.
- Permits.
- Financing.
- Infrastructure.
- Processing capacity.
- Long-term customers.
A project can therefore be strategically important while still being commercially difficult to finance.
This creates a fundamental supply-chain tension.
Governments want diversified supply.
But buyers may continue purchasing cheaper existing material while alternative projects are being developed.
Without long-term purchase commitments or sufficient financing, those alternative projects may never reach production.
Our View
Businesses dependent upon strategic materials should not assume announced projects automatically equal future supply.
Companies should ask:
- Which critical minerals do our products require?
- Which countries currently produce them?
- Where are they processed?
- How concentrated is supply?
- Which alternative projects are genuinely financed?
- Have those projects reached final investment decision?
- When is commercial production expected?
- Are long-term offtake agreements available?
- Should buyers participate in offtake arrangements?
- Can specifications accommodate alternative materials?
- Can products be redesigned?
- How much strategic inventory is justified?
- Are alternative suppliers already qualified?
- Could export controls interrupt supply?
- Could sanctions interrupt payment or transport?
- Does business-continuity planning include raw-material shortages?
The central risk is confusing planned capacity with available capacity.
A strategic project does not strengthen supply security until it is funded, built and producing.
Risk Indicator: HIGH – CRITICAL MINERALS & STRATEGIC SUPPLY SECURITY
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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