Europe Jet Fuel Shortage Raises Aviation Costs

21 September 2026

Executive Summary

Europe is facing a significant jet fuel supply deficit heading into the final quarter of 2026, increasing the risk of higher aviation costs and further pressure on airlines, air freight and corporate travel.

Consultancy Energy Aspects estimates Europe could face a jet fuel deficit of approximately 510,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter.

The shortage has developed after disruption to Middle Eastern supplies removed approximately half of Europe’s normal jet fuel imports from the region.

European buyers are consequently sourcing replacement fuel from increasingly distant markets including:

• United States.
• Canada.
• Nigeria.
• South Korea.

South Korean jet fuel shipments to Europe have reached approximately 129,000 barrels per day during September, their highest level since October 2022.

The vulnerability is compounded by low inventories.

Independent jet fuel stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub recently fell to their lowest level in seven years.

Europe is therefore successfully replacing some lost Middle Eastern supply — but doing so through longer, more expensive and increasingly important alternative supply chains.

UK Impact

The UK has one of Europe’s largest aviation markets and is particularly exposed to movements in jet fuel costs.

Potential consequences include:

• Higher airline operating costs.
• Increased air-freight rates.
• More expensive business travel.
• Pressure on airline margins.
• Fuel surcharges.
• Increased logistics costs for time-sensitive goods.

The exposure extends beyond passenger airlines.

Air freight is particularly important for:

• Pharmaceuticals.
• Electronics.
• Aerospace components.
• Medical equipment.
• High-value manufacturing.
• Perishable goods.

Businesses dependent upon urgent international freight should therefore consider whether transport budgets adequately reflect higher fuel costs.

Global Impact

Asia currently has substantially greater jet fuel availability than Europe.

Energy Aspects estimates the Asia-Pacific region could have a fourth-quarter surplus of approximately 419,000 barrels per day, while the United States could record a smaller surplus.

That imbalance is encouraging fuel to move towards Europe.

South Korean refinery output has increased considerably, helping provide additional supply.

But longer-distance sourcing creates additional dependencies involving:

• Tanker availability.
• Freight costs.
• Port capacity.
• Shipping routes.
• Marine insurance.
• Arbitrage economics.

If price differences between regions narrow, some replacement flows may become less commercially attractive.

Europe is therefore increasingly dependent upon global markets continuing to redirect fuel towards it.

Our View

Businesses should not view aviation fuel as solely an airline problem.

Companies should ask:

• How dependent are operations upon air freight?
• Which products require urgent transport?
• Could goods move by sea or rail?
• What would longer transit times mean for inventory?
• Are freight contracts fuel-indexed?
• Can carriers impose fuel surcharges?
• Are travel budgets realistic?
• Could airline schedules change if costs increase?
• Are critical components routinely flown internationally?
• Could additional inventory reduce emergency air freight?
• Are pharmaceuticals or perishables particularly exposed?
• Could customers absorb higher delivery charges?
• Are logistics suppliers financially resilient?
• Are alternative freight providers available?
• Could another Middle Eastern disruption remove replacement supply?

There is an important distinction between finding replacement supply and restoring supply-chain resilience.

Europe is finding jet fuel elsewhere.

But replacing nearby Middle Eastern supply with cargoes travelling thousands of additional miles creates new dependencies of its own.

Risk Indicator: HIGH – EUROPE, AVIATION FUEL & AIR FREIGHT

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.