GPS Signals Can Now Lie

18 August 2026

Executive Summary

Businesses increasingly depend upon satellite positioning systems for considerably more than showing someone where they are.

GPS and other global navigation satellite systems provide position, navigation and precise timing to aircraft, shipping, telecommunications, logistics networks and other infrastructure.

European aviation authorities say jamming and deliberate falsification of satellite signals have increased significantly around conflict and geopolitical-risk areas.

EASA updated its safety information again in July, warning that GNSS jamming and spoofing have increased in severity, intensity and sophistication, particularly around the Baltic, Black Sea, Middle East, Mediterranean and Arctic regions.

Lithuania’s communications regulator separately told Reuters that equipment operating from Kaliningrad may now falsify GPS signals over a radius of as much as 450 kilometres, potentially affecting the Baltic states, much of Poland and parts of Finland, Sweden and the Baltic Sea. Russia has denied Western allegations concerning such interference.

The commercial lesson goes considerably beyond aviation.

Businesses increasingly depend upon digital signals that can be wrong rather than simply unavailable.

UK Impact

UK companies may encounter GPS dependency throughout their operations.

Examples include:

• Aircraft navigation.
• Maritime positioning.
• Fleet management.
• Vehicle tracking.
• Cargo tracking.
• Mobile telecommunications.
• Emergency response.
• Construction surveying.
• Precision agriculture.
• Timestamping of computer and communications networks.

The important distinction is between jamming and spoofing.

Jamming prevents or degrades reception.

Spoofing transmits counterfeit signals capable of making a receiver calculate the wrong location, navigation information or time. EASA specifically identifies incorrect position, navigation and timing information as a consequence of spoofing.

A system that stops working is often obvious.

A system that continues operating while providing incorrect information can be considerably harder to identify.

Global Impact

Satellite-navigation interference is already producing practical disruption.

Lithuania told Reuters that interference around Kaliningrad has affected aviation surveillance, mobile networks and even GPS-dependent public-transport information. Modern commercial aircraft generally retain other navigation systems, which provides significant safety resilience, but interference can nevertheless increase operational complexity and disruption.

EASA says GNSS interference can affect aircraft and ground systems and has issued recommendations to operators, air-navigation providers and equipment manufacturers to strengthen resilience.

The wider corporate issue is dependency.

Companies may have built extremely sophisticated logistics and monitoring systems around one assumption:

The location and timing information entering the system is correct.

That assumption should increasingly be tested.

Our View

Businesses should identify operations dependent upon satellite positioning or timing and determine what happens when those signals become unavailable or unreliable.

Companies should ask:

• Which operational systems depend upon GPS or another GNSS?
• Can systems recognise spoofed data rather than accepting it?
• Are independent positioning methods available?
• Can drivers, pilots or operators work safely without satellite navigation?
• Does cargo tracking have alternative verification?
• Which telecommunications systems depend upon satellite-derived timing?
• Could incorrect positioning trigger automated decisions?
• Are employees trained to recognise inconsistent navigation data?
• Do logistics providers have procedures for GNSS disruption?
• Could a geopolitical event hundreds of miles away interfere with our operations?

Cyber resilience generally focuses on protecting computers and networks.

But businesses also depend on the integrity of the signals feeding those computers.

The emerging question is therefore not simply:

“What happens if GPS disappears?”

It is:

“What happens if GPS confidently tells us something that is wrong?”

Risk Indicator: HIGH

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.