1 October 2026
Executive Summary
Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered sharply, pushing crude prices lower, but the improvement in physical supply has not removed the underlying geopolitical and shipping risk.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, including shipments involving vessels operating without location transponders, recovered to approximately 23.3 million barrels per day during the latest week — broadly in line with their 2025 average.
Exports approximately doubled during September.
Saudi Arabia has also resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline.
Brent crude fell approximately 1% this morning to around $97 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell to around $89.
US crude inventories also unexpectedly increased by 922,000 barrels last week.
However, normal commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not been restored.
The energy market is improving faster than the underlying security environment.
UK Impact
Lower crude prices could eventually reduce pressure on:
- Diesel.
- Petrol.
- Aviation fuel.
- Road freight.
- Shipping.
- Manufacturing.
- Agriculture.
- Inflation.
However, businesses should be cautious about immediately incorporating significantly lower energy costs into budgets.
Much of the improvement depends upon alternative logistics and recovering export routes rather than a resolution of the conflict itself.
Global Impact
Saudi Arabia’s resumed use of Yanbu represents an important restoration of export resilience.
The East-West Pipeline allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Qatar-mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue.
Iran has received a US response to its proposed seven-day trust-building framework.
Iran’s proposal includes steps under which normal maritime passage through Hormuz could eventually be restored.
However, no agreement has yet been reached.
OPEC+ is also expected to consider production policy this weekend, with current indications suggesting November targets may remain unchanged.
Our View
Businesses should distinguish between:
Recovered exports.
Recovered logistics.
Recovered security.
They are not the same thing.
Companies should ask:
- Are energy prices beginning to fall?
- Are supplier surcharges falling with them?
- Are tanker rates declining?
- Are war-risk premiums declining?
- Are STS delays improving?
- Is Yanbu capacity reliable?
- Are emergency inventories being rebuilt?
- Are diesel prices responding?
- Are LNG supplies improving at the same rate as oil?
- Are suppliers removing temporary surcharges?
- Could another attack reverse the improvement?
- Are budgets based on spot prices or delivered costs?
- Are contingency routes still contracted?
This is precisely the point at which businesses can be tempted to dismantle expensive contingency arrangements.
That may be premature.
Improving supply is an opportunity to rebuild resilience — not necessarily evidence that resilience is no longer required.
Risk Indicator: HIGH – MIDDLE EAST, OIL SUPPLY & ENERGY LOGISTICS
Does This Risk Affect Your Business?
Invictus Risk Solutions helps businesses find practical solutions to insurance, risk and commercial challenges.
From individual businesses to major international organisations, risk is our business.
TALK TO INVICTUS →Disclaimer
The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.