18 September 2026
Executive Summary
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with preliminary tracking data recording only four commodity-vessel transits on Thursday, while another oil tanker has reportedly been struck.
The four observed vessels were:
- Two Panamax tankers.
- One Supramax vessel.
- One Kamsarmax vessel.
Three were entering the Gulf and only one was exiting.
That compares with:
- Six observed commodity vessels on Wednesday.
- A ten-day average of approximately 16 per day.
The figures remain preliminary and do not capture vessels operating with Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy also said a Togo-flagged oil tanker was struck on Thursday while attempting what Iran described as an unauthorised passage through the Strait.
The circumstances of that incident have not been independently established.
Oil prices nevertheless fell for a third consecutive session early Friday, with Brent around $104 per barrel, as markets responded to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to restore export capacity.
This creates an important distinction.
Oil supply fears have eased somewhat, but the physical security environment for commercial shipping through Hormuz has not.
UK Impact
UK businesses should not interpret falling oil prices as evidence that Middle Eastern transport risk has normalised.
Exposure remains through:
- Marine insurance.
- War-risk premiums.
- Freight costs.
- Cargo delays.
- Energy prices.
- Supplier lead times.
- Vessel availability.
A reduction in the commodity price does not necessarily produce an equivalent reduction in the cost of physically moving goods through a conflict zone.
Global Impact
Before the current conflict, the Strait carried approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments.
The continuing reduction in observable traffic therefore remains significant.
Saudi Arabia is attempting to restore approximately half of the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline while also offering more crude through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman.
Those measures have reduced immediate concerns about global oil availability.
But elsewhere the regional risk remains elevated.
Bab el-Mandeb recorded 23 commodity-vessel transits on Thursday, compared with a ten-day average of around 26.
Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces also exchanged further strikes on Thursday.
The global market is therefore increasingly relying upon logistics adaptation rather than a return to normal maritime conditions.
Our View
Businesses should separate three different Middle Eastern risks:
commodity availability, commodity price and transport availability.
They do not necessarily move together.
Companies should ask:
- Is the commodity physically available?
- Where is it currently located?
- Can it actually be transported?
- Which route will be used?
- Will insurers approve that route?
- Has the carrier reconfirmed the voyage?
- Have war-risk premiums changed?
- Who pays additional premiums?
- Are vessels available?
- Could the route change after departure?
- Are alternative ports available?
- Could transshipment be required?
- Does cargo insurance remain valid throughout the revised route?
- Could delivery times exceed contractual tolerances?
- Is additional inventory required?
- Are suppliers assuming that falling oil prices mean logistics risk has also fallen?
The current market provides a useful reminder:
price can improve before physical risk improves.
Businesses should therefore monitor the route as carefully as they monitor the commodity.
Risk Indicator: SEVERE – HORMUZ, MARINE SECURITY & GLOBAL SHIPPING
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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