24 August 2026
Executive Summary
The Iran situation has moved materially again.
The United States is preparing to announce a major new sanctions package against Iran today, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing the planned measures as the largest financial offensive yet directed against Tehran and its trading partners. The detailed measures have not yet been published.
Iran has responded with a much broader threat: that continued economic pressure could lead it to seek to prevent all oil exports from the Persian Gulf, rather than simply Iranian exports.
At the same time, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extraordinarily depressed. Fewer than 20 commodity vessels crossed during the weekend — just four on Sunday and 13 on Saturday — with traffic approximately 90% below pre-conflict levels.
The risk has therefore widened.
This is no longer simply a question of whether Iranian oil can move. It is whether energy produced elsewhere in the Gulf can move safely and reliably.
UK Impact
UK businesses may have no direct commercial relationship with Iran and still be exposed through:
- Fuel prices.
- Aviation fuel.
- Shipping costs.
- Petrochemicals.
- Fertilisers.
- Plastics.
- Marine insurance.
- Freight surcharges.
- Energy-intensive manufacturing.
The Gulf contains major exporters including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq.
Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Removing Iran from the supplier list therefore does not necessarily remove Iran-related disruption risk.
Global Impact
The immediate concern is not simply crude oil.
Disruption to Gulf energy movements can affect:
- Diesel.
- Jet fuel.
- LPG.
- Petrochemicals.
- LNG.
- Feedstocks used in manufacturing.
Markets are already reacting. Brent crude was trading above $93 per barrel this morning, although prices had fallen from Friday as traders awaited the precise US sanctions announcement.
Iran has also allowed some Iraqi tankers through Hormuz, illustrating that transit is not simply a binary question of whether the strait is physically open or closed.
Commercial access can depend upon vessel, cargo, nationality and geopolitical circumstances.
Our View
Businesses should now assess Gulf-wide exposure rather than Iran-only exposure.
Companies should ask:
- Which commodities depend upon Gulf exports?
- Which suppliers require Hormuz transit?
- Which products depend upon Gulf refining rather than Gulf crude?
- Can cargo be sourced from Atlantic Basin suppliers?
- Are alternative grades technically acceptable?
- How much additional voyage time would alternative sourcing create?
- Are freight contracts exposed to war-risk surcharges?
- Are aviation and diesel requirements secured?
- Do suppliers hold strategic inventory outside the Gulf?
- Which contracts contain price-escalation provisions?
- Could today’s sanctions affect banks, buyers or shipping counterparties?
- Who is responsible for monitoring official sanctions announcements?
Businesses should not assume measures being discussed are already legally operative before the detailed sanctions are published.
But the operational disruption is already real.
The question is no longer simply:
“Do we buy from Iran?”
It is:
“How much of our business depends upon a region whose exports Iran may be able to disrupt?”
Risk Indicator: HIGH – DEVELOPING
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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