25 August 2026
Executive Summary
The global fuel system is developing an unusual vulnerability.
US refineries have become increasingly important in compensating for disruption to refining capacity elsewhere in the world — but they are now being operated at exceptionally high levels for an exceptionally long period.
US refinery utilisation has remained above 95% for more than 11 consecutive weeks, the longest such stretch in more than 25 years, according to Reuters analysis.
Recent EIA data have put utilisation even higher at times: US refinery utilisation reached approximately 97.2% in August as refiners responded to tight global fuel markets.
The problem is counter-intuitive.
High utilisation sounds like good news.
But industrial assets cannot necessarily operate indefinitely at maximum output without consequences.
When spare capacity disappears, maintenance is delayed and equipment is worked harder, the system becomes less able to absorb the next failure.
UK Impact
This matters to UK businesses because Britain is increasingly exposed to international markets for refined fuels.
The issue is not simply the availability of crude oil.
Businesses actually consume products made from it, including:
- Diesel.
- Petrol.
- Aviation fuel.
- Heating fuels.
- Petrochemical feedstocks.
- Lubricants.
Global refining capacity has already been disrupted by the conflict involving Iran and by attacks affecting Russian refining infrastructure.
Reuters estimates global refinery output is currently running almost 2 million barrels per day below demand, leaving the international market unusually dependent upon remaining high-performing refineries.
That means an unexpected outage at a major refinery could now have a disproportionately large effect on fuel availability and pricing.
Global Impact
US refineries are effectively operating as an increasingly important swing supplier to the global fuel market.
US exports of refined products have risen strongly as buyers seek alternatives to disrupted supplies elsewhere.
But Reuters reports that some refiners have postponed or reduced planned maintenance in order to continue capturing extremely strong margins and meet demand. The concern is that sustained operation at unusually high rates increases vulnerability to unplanned equipment failures.
History provides a warning.
Refineries contain complex systems operating continuously under high temperature and pressure. Maintenance periods are therefore not simply convenient downtime.
They are part of the asset’s risk-management programme.
The uncomfortable trade-off becomes:
take capacity offline deliberately for maintenance now
or potentially
lose capacity unexpectedly later.
Our View
The lesson applies far beyond oil refining.
Any business operating critical assets close to maximum capacity for prolonged periods should recognise that high utilisation can conceal declining resilience.
Companies should ask:
- Which critical assets are operating close to maximum capacity?
- Has maintenance been postponed because demand is high?
- How much maintenance backlog exists?
- Are inspection intervals being extended?
- Is equipment deterioration being monitored?
- Are spare parts immediately available?
- How quickly could an unplanned failure be repaired?
- Is specialist engineering support available?
- Can production transfer to another facility?
- How much genuine spare capacity exists?
- Are suppliers themselves running unusually hard?
- What happens if the highest-output asset suddenly becomes unavailable?
Procurement teams should also consider this when assessing suppliers.
A supplier operating at 98% capacity may appear exceptionally productive.
But it may actually offer less resilience than one operating at 80% with maintained equipment and spare capacity.
The same principle applies to:
- Factories.
- Power stations.
- Data centres.
- Logistics fleets.
- Warehouses.
- Ports.
- Mining equipment.
- Production lines.
Maximum utilisation is excellent for today’s output.
It can be dangerous for tomorrow’s resilience.
Risk Indicator: HIGH – OPERATIONAL RESILIENCE
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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