Russia Reroutes Grain as Black Sea Shipping Disrupted

23 September 2026

Executive Summary

Russia is rapidly adapting Baltic and Arctic ports normally used for commodities including fertiliser and coal to handle grain exports as attacks on Black Sea shipping force a major restructuring of export logistics.

Historically, almost 90% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports have moved through Black Sea ports.

Russian companies are now repurposing facilities at locations including:

• Ust-Luga.
• St Petersburg.
• Murmansk.

A fertiliser terminal at Ust-Luga has already begun handling grain.

Rail applications for approximately 260,000 tonnes of grain to be delivered to the terminal during September have reportedly been submitted, including cargo destined for Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Russia’s Murmansk commercial port is meanwhile preparing to begin grain exports as early as October.

Approximately 40,000 tonnes of grain from Russia’s southern Stavropol region is expected to travel approximately 2,700 kilometres by rail to Murmansk before being loaded for export.

The development demonstrates how seriously disruption in the Black Sea is changing the physical geography of Russian commodity exports.

UK Impact

The UK does not need to import Russian grain directly to experience the consequences.

International wheat and grain prices reflect global availability and transportation costs.

Potential exposure includes:

• Food manufacturers.
• Animal feed.
• Bakeries.
• Livestock producers.
• Commodity traders.
• Shipping.
• Fertiliser markets.

Changing Russian export routes could also increase demand for rail, port and vessel capacity elsewhere.

Global Impact

Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Its ability to deliver grain therefore matters particularly to import-dependent countries across:

• North Africa.
• Middle East.
• Asia.

Russian grain exports during July and August were approximately 4.4 million tonnes, around 31% below the previous year.

September exports have been estimated at approximately 2.45 million tonnes, around half the comparable level last year.

Alternative routes are therefore becoming increasingly important.

The logistics are challenging.

Moving grain from southern Russian agricultural regions to Murmansk requires a journey of thousands of kilometres by rail before the cargo even reaches a ship.

Ports also need:

• Grain handling equipment.
• Storage.
• Rail capacity.
• Loading capacity.
• Suitable vessels.

Some facilities are consequently repurposing equipment originally intended for fertiliser and other commodities.

Our View

The development demonstrates why alternative ports should not automatically be treated as equivalent replacement capacity.

Businesses should ask:

• Where does contracted grain normally leave Russia?
• Is the Black Sea route still available?
• Which alternative port is being used?
• How far must grain travel by rail?
• Who bears additional inland freight costs?
• Is sufficient rail capacity available?
• Is grain storage available at the destination?
• Can terminals handle food commodities safely?
• Are vessels available?
• Are Baltic routes commercially insurable?
• Could rerouting affect fertiliser capacity?
• Are delivery times changing?
• Could buyers switch origin?
• Are substitute grains available?
• Are contracts flexible on loading port?
• Could higher logistics costs feed into food prices?

There is an important distinction between alternative routes and equivalent routes.

Russia can move grain through the Baltic and Arctic.

But transporting agricultural commodities thousands of additional kilometres before loading them onto ships introduces additional cost, capacity constraints and failure points.

Risk Indicator: HIGH – BLACK SEA, GRAIN & EXPORT LOGISTICS

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.