Ship Fuel Shortage Threatens Global Shipping Costs

7 September 2026

Executive Summary

Global shipping faces a new cost and availability risk as supplies of fuel oil used by ships and power plants tighten sharply amid refinery disruption caused by conflict and changing refinery economics.

Reuters reports that the global fuel-oil market is expected to move into a deficit of approximately 218,000 barrels per day during the third quarter of 2026, compared with a deficit of only around 6,000 barrels per day a year earlier.

The pressure reflects several simultaneous factors.

Refineries affected by conflict and disrupted crude flows are processing less oil.

Where refineries are operating, many are prioritising higher-margin products such as diesel and gasoline rather than fuel oil.

Exports from parts of Russia and the Middle East have also fallen.

Inventories at major global marine-fuel hubs including:

• Singapore.
• Fujairah.
• Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp.

are approximately 30% below seasonal norms.

Singapore is particularly important because it is the world’s largest marine-bunkering hub.

Prices for very-low-sulphur fuel oil in Singapore have risen sharply since the Iran conflict intensified.

That creates a direct logistics consequence.

Even where vessels remain available and shipping routes remain open, the fuel required to operate those vessels is becoming more expensive and potentially more difficult to secure.

UK Impact

UK businesses may experience the consequences through:

• Higher ocean-freight rates.
• Bunker surcharges.
• Longer voyage planning.
• Carrier schedule changes.
• Higher import costs.
• Higher export costs.
• Increased container pricing.
• Chartering pressure.
• Energy-cost inflation.
• Contract renegotiation.

The impact is unlikely to be limited to businesses trading with the Middle East.

Marine fuel is purchased globally.

A shortage in Singapore or Fujairah can influence bunker pricing across wider trade routes because vessels may alter where and when they refuel.

That can change voyage economics even for cargo moving between markets that are geographically distant from the Gulf.

Global Impact

The emerging shortage demonstrates how conflict can create second-order logistics disruption.

The initial problem may be reduced crude availability.

That then affects refinery throughput.

Refineries prioritise more profitable products.

Fuel-oil production falls.

Marine-fuel prices rise.

Shipping costs increase.

Those costs then spread into virtually every traded commodity and manufactured product.

This matters because ocean freight underpins:

• Energy.
• Food.
• Metals.
• Chemicals.
• Automotive production.
• Consumer goods.
• Machinery.
• Construction materials.

The commercial consequence is therefore broader than the fuel market itself.

Our View

Businesses dependent upon ocean freight should now monitor bunker availability and bunker pricing alongside vessel availability.

Companies should ask:

• Are bunker surcharges fixed or variable?
• Can carriers pass fuel increases directly to us?
• Are surcharges capped?
• Which bunkering hubs does the route depend upon?
• Could vessels alter refuelling locations?
• Would that extend voyage time?
• Are freight contracts indexed to marine-fuel prices?
• Could higher bunker costs trigger contract renegotiation?
• Are critical imports sufficiently stocked?
• Can higher freight costs be passed to customers?
• Are alternative shipping routes genuinely cheaper?
• Would alternative routes require additional fuel?
• Are charter-party bunker clauses understood?
• Could fuel availability disrupt scheduled sailings?
• How would a sustained 10%, 20% or 30% increase in ocean freight affect margins?

The important point is that a vessel does not need to be prevented from sailing for logistics costs to increase materially.

A shortage of the fuel that powers the vessel can produce much the same commercial consequence.

Risk Indicator: HIGH – SHIPPING, MARINE FUEL & LOGISTICS COST

Disclaimer

The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.

Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.