Latest Market Alert | 19 July 2026
Executive Summary
Preliminary University of Michigan data show that US consumer sentiment increased to 54.4 in July, up from 49.5 in June. The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to 54.9, while the Expectations Index increased to 54.0. Overall sentiment nevertheless remains 11.8% below July 2025 levels, indicating that household confidence remains subdued.
Why it matters
US consumer spending remains one of the principal drivers of the global economy. While confidence has improved, households continue to face uncertainty surrounding inflation, interest rates and the developing conflict in the Middle East.
UK impact
Improving US consumer demand could support UK exporters and multinational businesses with significant exposure to the American market. However, higher energy prices resulting from geopolitical tensions could influence US monetary policy and continue to affect international financial markets.
Global impact
The latest survey suggests that easing petrol prices during the survey period helped improve consumer confidence. However, most interviews were completed before the latest escalation in the Middle East, meaning renewed increases in energy prices could weaken sentiment in future surveys.
Our View
The improvement is encouraging but should be interpreted cautiously. Consumer confidence remains well below last year’s level and remains vulnerable to renewed inflationary pressures should geopolitical tensions continue to push energy prices higher.
Businesses should distinguish between improving short-term sentiment and evidence of a sustained increase in household spending.
Risk Indicator: MODERATE
Disclaimer
The information contained within this Market Alert is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or insurance advice, nor should it be relied upon when making commercial or investment decisions. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information at the time of publication using reputable and independently verified sources, market conditions can change rapidly. Readers should seek appropriate professional advice before acting on any information contained herein.
Invictus Risk Solutions LLP – Helping organisations stay ahead of emerging risks through informed insight and independent analysis.