30 September 2026
Executive Summary
Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict are intensifying as Qatar conducts indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, but no agreement has yet been reached to restore normal commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
US and Iranian officials have separately communicated with Qatari mediators as efforts continue to establish terms for negotiations.
Qatar says it is exchanging messages between the two sides and attempting to establish common ground for an agreement.
Iran has proposed a framework under which a ceasefire could ultimately lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, substantial disagreements remain over sanctions, frozen Iranian assets, Iran’s nuclear programme and the conditions governing the end of hostilities.
US President Donald Trump has publicly denied reports that he offered Iran sanctions relief.
Iran says it remains prepared to negotiate but will not accept what it describes as coercion.
For businesses, the important development is that negotiations are becoming more serious — but commercial planning should not yet assume that Hormuz will reopen normally.
UK Impact
The outcome could have significant consequences for UK businesses through:
- Oil prices.
- LNG availability.
- Diesel.
- Aviation fuel.
- Shipping.
- Marine insurance.
- Inflation.
- Interest rates.
- Freight costs.
A credible agreement restoring normal commercial passage through Hormuz could materially reduce some of these pressures.
Failure of negotiations could produce the opposite outcome.
Global Impact
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
The disruption has forced producers and traders to rely upon:
- Ship-to-ship transfers.
- Alternative pipelines.
- Additional tankers.
- Emergency inventories.
- Alternative crude suppliers.
- Alternative LNG cargoes.
Those workarounds have improved physical supply but remain expensive and inefficient.
Iran’s proposed framework reportedly includes a process leading towards reopening Hormuz alongside negotiations concerning sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme.
No agreement has been reached.
Meanwhile, the United States has imposed additional sanctions targeting individuals and entities it says are involved in supplying Iran’s weapons programmes.
The latest sanctions include targets in Russia, China, Hong Kong and Pakistan.
Our View
Businesses should treat the diplomatic activity as a scenario-planning event rather than a reason to dismantle contingency arrangements.
Companies should prepare for three broad outcomes:
Negotiated improvement
Hormuz traffic gradually normalises, war-risk premiums fall, tanker availability improves and energy prices potentially ease.
Prolonged negotiation
Current disruption continues while markets repeatedly react to positive and negative diplomatic signals.
Negotiation failure
Military escalation could again reduce shipping movements and increase energy, insurance and freight costs.
Businesses should therefore ask:
- What happens if Hormuz normalises?
- What happens if current conditions continue for another three months?
- What happens if traffic deteriorates again?
- Are alternative suppliers still available?
- Should emergency inventories be rebuilt now?
- Are high-cost freight arrangements still necessary?
- Can temporary surcharges be renegotiated?
- Are war-risk premiums beginning to fall?
- Are tanker waiting times improving?
- Are STS queues declining?
- Are suppliers assuming a ceasefire prematurely?
- Are contracts dependent upon reopening?
- Could energy hedging protect either outcome?
- Are contingency arrangements reversible?
Businesses should be particularly cautious about reacting to individual diplomatic headlines.
Previous ceasefire arrangements during the conflict have subsequently broken down.
The existence of negotiations is therefore important.
It is not the same thing as an agreement.
Businesses should prepare for peace while remaining protected against the possibility that peace does not arrive.
Risk Indicator: SEVERE – MIDDLE EAST, IRAN, HORMUZ & GEOPOLITICAL RISK
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The information contained within these Market Alerts is provided for general market awareness and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, regulatory or insurance advice. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication using multiple reputable and independently verified sources, geopolitical events, legislation, regulation and market conditions may change rapidly. Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting upon any information contained herein.
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