War-Risk Insurance Markets Remain Highly Cautious Despite Diplomatic Progress

Latest Market Alert | 25 May 2026

Executive Summary

Financial Times reporting indicates that shipping insurers remain extremely cautious toward Gulf transit risks despite growing optimism around a possible Iran peace agreement. Brokers warn that premiums and operational restrictions are unlikely to normalise quickly even if a ceasefire framework is signed.

Why It Matters

Insurance availability and pricing directly affect shipping costs, commodity flows and international trade confidence.

UK Commercial Impact

UK importers and exporters may continue facing elevated logistics and insurance costs even if geopolitical tensions ease.

Global Commercial Impact

Persistent insurance-market caution may slow the return of normal tanker traffic and maintain pressure on freight markets.

Our View

Insurance markets are signalling that operational confidence remains well behind political optimism. Clients should continue planning for elevated transport and trade costs.

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